After two years of college enrollment doldrums following the Covid-19 pandemic, higher education leaders finally have a bit of good news they can celebrate. Almost 76% – 75.7% to be exact – of the 2.4 million students who entered college for the first time in the fall of 2021 returned to college in the fall of 2022.
That’s a main takeaway from the 2023 Persistence and Retention report released today by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC). That new persistence rate is 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous cohort, and it equals the pre-pandemic averages for the 2016 to 2018 freshman classes.
The report found that 67.2% of students entering college in fall 2021 returned to their starting institution for their second year (the retention rate) or earned a credential at that institution a year after enrollment, 0.5 percentage points higher than the pre-pandemic average.
An additional 8.6% transferred from their starting college and continued their enrollment at another institution by their second fall (the persistence rate). This transfer-out rate was essentially the same as the previous cohort, meaning that the gains in persistence among fall 2021 college starters were mostly accounted for by the larger share of students who continued at their starting institution into their second year.
“It is very encouraging to see that the students who entered college in the second year of the pandemic have stayed enrolled at higher rates,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the NSCRC, in its news release. “The 0.9 percentage point recovery from the suppressed persistence level of those who started in fall 2020 means nearly 22,000 more students are still in college today.”
Sector Differences
Persistence and retention improvements differed across the higher education sectors. Community colleges and public and private nonprofit four-year institutions all experienced increases in both their persistence and retention rates this year. This was the second consecutive year that community colleges saw gains, approaching levels of persistence and retention they last achieved with the 2018 entering class.
In contrast, private for-profit four-year colleges and primarily associate degree granting baccalaureate institutions saw declines in retention and persistence.
With more students pursuing short-term, skilled trade credentials in fall 2021, the share of certificate seekers who earned a credential in their first year or persisted into their second fall increased across the largest enrollment skilled-trade concentrations —mechanic and repair technologies, precision production, construction trades, and personal and culinary services.
Health care majors’ persistence and retention rates also improved at all credential levels, but enrollment in these majors stayed flat for bachelor’s degree seekers and declined among other undergraduates. Computer science, which has enjoyed large, double-digit enrollment growth, also saw increases in persistence and retention among freshmen at all credential levels.
Student Differences
Nationally, retention rates increased among both part-time and full-time students, while persistence increased only for full-time students and held steady for part-time students.
Public two-year institutions were the only sector to see increases in both full-time and part-time student persistence. Both persistence and retention rates declined for part-time students at public and private for-profit four-year institutions, as well as at primarily associate degree granting baccalaureate institutions.
Large disparities by race and ethnicity remain a problem. The persistence rate for Asian students (88.4%) was the highest, 26 percentage points larger than for Native American students (62.1%), who had the lowest rate. White students persisted at a 80.5% rate, Latinx students at 71.1%, and Black students at 65.8%.
Persistence and retention increased for all major racial/ethnic groups, except for Asian student retention which was stable. Native American students did make substantial gains after decreases last year, increasing 2 percentage points in persistence and 1.6 percentage points in retention compared to last year.
Persistence and retention rates by female students were nearly 3 percentage points higher compared to their male peers, a difference that was greater at private for-profit four-year institutions and smaller at public four-year institutions.
In terms of student age, persistence and retention rates increased 1.4 percentage points for college starters who were 20 or younger. However, rates for older students declined, falling about one percentage point for students between 21 to 24, driven by marked declines in persistence and retention at public and private nonprofit four-year institutions. Students 25 and older experienced larger declines in both retention and persistence regardless of the sector in which they were enrolled.
The bounce back in retention is an encouraging sign for institutions struggling to maintain their enrollment. With projections that the pool of traditional age college students will contract in the coming years, re-enrolling a larger number of beginning students has become an increasingly key strategy for college leaders.
About the National Student Clearinghouse® Research Center™
The NSCRC is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. It collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations to gather accurate longitudinal data that can be used to guide educational policy decisions. The NSCRC analyzes data from 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represented 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollment in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2021.
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