After years of steady declines, preliminary figures show that overall college enrollment is up nationwide for the fall, 2023 semester, the first increase since the beginning of the pandemic.
According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC) Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information report for fall 2023, initial numbers show that undergraduate enrollment increased 2.1% – or about 160,000 students – compared to 2022, and graduate enrollment ticked up .7% over last year. Overall enrollment is now 2% higher than Fall, 2022 and 1% higher than in Fall, 2021.
The NSCRC report is based on data covering 9.6 million undergraduate and graduate students, as reported by about 1,500 institutions, or 55% of all those that participate in the Clearinghouse, as of September 28, 2023.
Increases in every sector
All major higher education sectors saw increases, with public two-year colleges enjoying a large gain (4.4%), accounting for more than half of the total growth in undergraduate enrollment.
At the undergraduate level, public four-year universities gained .8%, while private nonprofit colleges increased 1.4%, and private for-profit schools were up 6.4%.
One discouraging sign was that despite overall undergraduate enrollment growth, the number of freshman declined by 3.6%, largely wiping out the gains seen last year among first-year students. Most of the freshman declines occurred in bachelor’s programs at public and private nonprofit four-year institutions (-6.9% and -4.7%, respectively), posing a real concern for those schools going forward.
Freshmen at community colleges and primarily associate degree granting baccalaureate institutions stabilized (-0.2% and +0.3%, respectively), following gains in 2022.
In something of a surprise, freshman losses at four-year institutions were smaller at less-selective schools (-0.9%) compared to competitive (-5.5%), very competitive (-7.3%), and highly selective (-5.9%) colleges. Whether this pattern was due to students opting to attend less expensive schools or reflected a tendency among more selective institutions to reduce the size of their entering classes is not clear.
“This is good news for community colleges and for the growing numbers of continuing and returning students who had lost momentum from the start of the pandemic,” said Douglas Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, in a news release. “In a more troubling sign, however, the initial recovery among freshmen last year appears to have stalled as more 18-to 20-year-olds, especially at four-year institutions, are opting out.”
Among the 46 states for which sufficient initial data were available, fewer than a quarter had declines in overall enrollment, ranging from -0.3% in Hawaii, Nebraska, and New Hampshire to -4.7% in Vermont.
In contrast, California, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, and Wyoming all saw enrollment growth of at least 4%.
Student Characteristics
Black (+2.1%), Latinx (+4.2%), Asian (+4.0%) and multiracial (+3.8%) students all saw undergraduate enrollment growth this fall. However, the number of White undergraduates declined (-0.9%), most dramatically among freshmen (-9.4%).
Undergraduate female enrollment gained 1.2% while enrollment of males was up 2.2%, continuing the trend of the greater pandemic impact on women first seen in fall 2021.
Undergraduate numbers grew at both ends of the age distribution, with students 18-20 and 30 or older each increasing by about 3% this fall. Those under 18 (dual enrolled high school students) showed the largest gain, with an 8.8% jump over last fall.
Among traditional aged undergraduate students, enrollment increased across all neighborhood income levels, with students from the lowest income areas gaining 3.6% while those from the highest income areas increased 1.4%.
Other findings
Students continue to show a preference for shorter-term credentials. Enrollments in undergraduate certificate programs were up 9.9%, compared to 3.6 % for associate degrees and 0.9% for bachelor’s degrees.
Growth at historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) significantly exceeded the overall undergraduate growth (6.1% vs 2.1%). Colleges in the South and the West had the largest undergraduate increases (+2.7% and +3.0%, respectively).
Enrollment increased in computer and information science bachelor’s programs (+10.7%), but the slide in the liberal arts and humanities continued (-2.2%). Enrollment in healthcare programs is starting to come back after pandemic-related declines, especially among those seeking undergraduate certificates and associate degrees (+5.7% and +4.4%, respectively).
The enrollment rebound was not unanticipated, although the dip in the number of freshmen was surprising, given that more students had applied to college for 2023-24 than the prior academic year. Several community colleges and regional universities had reported strong enrollment figures at the beginning of the semester, an indicator that a bit of a national enrollment rebound might be underway.
Although this year’s modest increase is good news, the decline in freshmen raises a major question about whether a full enrollment recovery has begun. The mixed picture leaves higher education leaders wondering – is the worst over, or will this year prove to be merely a temporary break from a longer downturn?
The NSCRC was careful to point out that the results are preliminary and subject to change as additional data are reported for the fall semester. More complete numbers are scheduled to be released early next year.
About the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center
The NSCRC is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. It collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations to gather accurate longitudinal data that can be used to guide educational policy decisions. NSCRC analyzes data from 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represented 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollment in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2020.
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