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Marketing Brew informs marketing pros of the latest on brand strategy, social media, and ad tech via our weekday newsletter, virtual events, marketing conferences, and digital guides.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
The advertising industry defied expectations in 2024, but don\u2019t expect 2025 to be as rosy, according to industry analyst Brian Wieser.<\/p>\n
Last week, Wieser, a former GroupM economic analyst who now authors the Madison and Wall newsletter, published his quarterly forecast of industry growth, finding that US ad revenue grew roughly 9% this year, nearly 1.8% higher than he previously forecast.<\/p>\n
However, he\u2019s already tamped down his expectations for the new year, calling for growth of 4.5%. <\/strong>That\u2019s well below the forecast given by his former employer, which is projecting growth of about 7% in 2025. It\u2019s also lower than his previous forecast of 5.3% growth in 2025.<\/p>\n\u201cI\u2019m trying to be as apolitical as possible and trying to not apply wishful thinking to how things might work out,\u201d Wieser told Marketing Brew. Though markets have lately been \u201cwillfully optimistic,\u201d it\u2019s \u201chard to reconcile that with what seems more likely to occur,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
Why assume the role of Madison Avenue\u2019s Grinch? <\/strong>If there is a jolt in M&A activity in the new year, a more concentrated industry might not be inclined to spend as much on advertising, Wieser wrote. Furthermore, he added, President-elect Trump\u2019s proposed tariffs would \u201calmost certainly have direct negative consequences on advertising, especially among the cross-border drop-shipping importers based in China\u201d if they go into effect.<\/p>\nAnd if proposed restrictions on pharma advertising become reality, that could also tamp down those budgets.<\/p>\n
The good news:<\/strong> The booming retail media category is expected to bear the brunt of any potential slowdown, as those platforms are the recipient of most of the cross-border advertisers and trade between the US and China, Wieser wrote. With that said, Wieser projects that retail media will grow just 9.4% in 2025, much lower than the 18.3% growth it experienced in 2024.<\/p>\nReact accordingly, he advised.<\/p>\n
\u201cFrom a marketer\u2019s perspective, I would argue you should be completely indifferent about most of this stuff. Just because the ad market or media is growing doesn\u2019t tell us anything about your business as a marketer,\u201d he said. \u201cI\u2019d say that most sellers of advertising should mute their expectations.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Get marketing news you’ll actually want to read Marketing Brew informs marketing pros of the latest on brand strategy, social media, and ad tech via our weekday newsletter, virtual events, marketing conferences, and digital guides. The advertising industry defied expectations in 2024, but don\u2019t expect 2025 to be as rosy, according to industry analyst Brian […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21878,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[78],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-21877","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-marketing"},"yoast_head":"\n
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